BAK Risk Monitor

What is really important and which current topics can you do without. Our picture is often shaped by current events and their discussion. Only rarely are these events placed in the right context. BAK Consult regularly analyses current developments and trends, reduces complexity and carries out a relative order and evaluation of risks.

The risk monitor illustrates the relative importance of risks. It ensures that we do not lose sight of "old" or "known" risks and correctly classify new risks that are promoted, for example, by media hype.

LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE
low
high
TERM
short-term
medium-term
© BAK Economics 2018
 Risk in Switzerland
 directly influenceable
 partly influenceable
 hardly influenceable
 sphere size=economic impact on Switzerland

real estate crisis

Expansion of supply in recent years not in line with medium-term demand. Current prices oversubscribed by misallocations and low-interest phase.

Elimination of bilateral agreements

The discontinuation of the bilateral agreements has significantly reduced the attractiveness of Switzerland as a location and has led to weak investment and growth in Switzerland.
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Decay of the European Union

BREXIT is just the beginning. Centrifugal forces and national interests lead to irreconcilable differences and the disintegration of the EU.

financial meltdown – 2009 light

This may be triggered by unresolved problems in the European banking system, the monetary policy turnaround, capital flight from emerging countries or loan defaults by companies.

Debt crisis Emerging markets

The high USD debt in emerging markets (especially Asia) can no longer be serviced in the event of a dollar appreciation and rising interest rates, which triggers a debt crisis.

Reform of old-age
insurance

The pressure for reform remains high after the failure of the last reform (zero interest rates, increasing life expectancy). More pressure on private provision leads to an increasing savings rate and falling consumption.

Eurozone disintegration

Design errors are not overcome, the costs for bridging economic divergences become unacceptable.

Disruptive digitization

Loss of jobs due to progressive digitization and robotization. The consequences are rising unemployment and social upheavals.

Chaos-BREXIT / No Deal BREXIT

UK The economy is collapsing more than feared and is pulling the EU down with it, strong turbulence on the global financial markets and upward pressure on the Swiss franc.

„IXIT“: Turbulence in Italy

Eine instabile Regierung, Schuldenprobleme und überschuldete Banken werfen Italien in eine schwere Wirtschaftskrise; Italien scheidet ungeordnet aus dem Euro aus.

Block formation East vs. West

Sanctions, political differences and tariffs between the Western industrialized countries and Russia/China block the growth of the world economy.

Swiss franc remains strong

Swiss franc remains strong, real economic impact stronger than expected.

Hard Landing China

The need to correct the growth model, which is strongly driven by government guidance, debt financing and investments, is greater than expected.

Marked rise in inflation

Subdued inflation expectations are proving to be a mirage. Trend reversal with sharply rising inflation rates and significant increases in interest rates.

Geopolitical distortions

Increasing global hot spots of conflict in Turkey, Korea, Russia/Ukraine, Syria, the East China Sea, etc. are hampering world trade and creating uncertainty.

Increase cyber attacks

Considerable disruption of the communicative infrastructure and networking. Severe impairment of production processes.

Failure of EU framework agreement

Uncertainty about EU relations and imminent trade restrictions are slowing Swiss economic growth.

Powerless Monetary/Fiscal Policy

The monetary and fiscal policy powder has largely disappeared in the industrialized countries. A cyclical slowdown can therefore quickly turn into a recession.

Increased tax competition

Location competitors are catching up in international tax competition. The Swiss business location loses its relative tax advantage.

Cyclical attenuation

The global economic cycle has matured far after the sustained upward trend. The following slowdown could be much stronger than assumed in the baseline scenario.

SV17 fails

The 2017 tax proposal will not be implemented. This will lead to greater uncertainty, greater isolation and a loss of attractiveness for Switzerland as a business location.

Persistent
Protectio-nism

Increasing social rejection of liberalization activities and active protectionist measures at the political level.

Harmful public initiatives

Acceptance of initiatives (e.g. corporate responsibility, full money) increases pressure on Swiss location and growth potential.

Monetary policy: withdrawal with turbulence

Exit from extremely expansionary monetary policy leads to strong corrections in asset prices and growth.

US government crisis

The impeachment process or premature resignation of the US President weakens the US economy and leads to uncertainty.


Our services

Are you interested in the BAK Risk Monitor and other services? In addition to the above illustration, you can obtain regular assessments of existing and new risks on a subscription basis or individually tailored risk scenarios. Please contact us.

Risk Monitor

An overview of old and new risks and their relative importance. The Risk Monitor is updated regularly and is freely available as an online and download version.

Risk presentations

Book our presentations on the risks and challenges for Switzerland and specify for your company.

Risk Factsheets

Two-page fact sheets on the identified risks as an initial basis for your company's decisions. Available as a subscription.

Risk scenarios

The individually specified qualitative and quantitative risk scenario for your company. Designed in cooperation with your and our experts.